News:All Commentaries
Help in turbulent times
January 6 2009
I am sure that most, if not all of us, are pleased to see the end of 2008 but look forward with some degree of trepidation, toward 2009. Small businesses in general are having a tough time, but, small regulated businesses have additional minefields to pass safely through in 2009. more...
Nationalisation at Christmas
January 5 2009
Given the desperate state of the UK economy, the Government has decided to introduce some exceptional measures and to extend its nationalisation plans. It has proposed that it needs to have a greater and direct involvement and to take more prescriptive decisions with regard to the potential recovery in the economy. more...
Jane's role
December 17 2008
My name is Jane Sanders, I am a barrister in training and I left FOS in January 2008, after 16 months of life as a hallowed 'adjudicator'. All of you in financial services are no doubt more familiar with FOS's horror stories than I. Well, I thought the learning curve whilst at FOS was steep; whew! in the 9 months since being on the 'other side of the fence' I have been regaled with enough stories about client IFAs experiences on the receiving end of the FSA's regime to make my hair curl, and which would have seen lesser mortals running for the hills.
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After hating the 8 – watch out for the malign 9
December 15 2008
Beware of consensus – it is often an excuse for complacency. However, when looking at 2009 there seems to be a growing consensus that it’s going to be a year of recession – you may have “hated the 8” but now prepare for the “malign 9”. more...
Some Chipped China?
December 5 2008
We are by now quite used to those more descriptive Chinese expressions and terminology – they often seem to come with references to wildlife and nature as well as a more Confucian style. Most recently though, this illustrative style seems to have been replaced with a more blatant and blunt language which reflects the more difficult economic situations that this nation is now facing. more...
Spend Spend Spend – Please!
November 28 2008
And so the cry goes up – “tax cuts – give them the money and they will spend our way out of this recession”. Oh the power of popular mantra. With all of the forward thinking of an excited Tigger on speed, the politicians of the world seem wide eyed with excitement in the hope that they have found the answer to economic alchemy and the end to our economic recession. more...
Blowing the Tanks
November 20 2008
It feels a bit like the scene in that iconic German film “Das Boot” when the submarine commander orders all the tanks to be blown in a vain effort to try and stop the damaged U-boat from sinking. more...
If you go down to the Woods (Bretton) today ......
November 13 2008
This week the meeting of the “G20” in Washington on the 15th has the opportunity to be an extremely important event. Although some have tagged it as the opportunity to create a new “Bretton Woods” international agreement for a new financial world order, the reality is going to be considerably less but nonetheless the meeting is still going to be vital. As we fumble our way through this financial fiasco, at least our leaders have realised just how internationally linked and inter-dependent we all are. Thus a meeting of the 20 including the likes of China, India and Russia, is far more realistic than the older cosy club of post WW2 capitalists. more...
Twenty five years ago
November 13 2008
Twenty five years ago, if any financial services firm had been asked whether they foresaw regulation as being a positive thing, I think we can all assume that the answer would have been a resounding no. more...
Who Needs Gunpowder?
November 10 2008
In 1605 Guy Fawkes wanted to destroy most of the English establishment and its parliament along with its new Scottish King, James VI, with some good old fashioned gunpowder. Several centuries later Mr Fawkes should have been an investment banker because he could potentially have achieved the same (apart from the Regicide) without the need of a flickering taper in a dark cellar but rather just with the sale of a toxic bond or two. In comparison gunpowder seems rather tame – when watching fireworks explode this week try not to make too many comparisons with the global economy. more...
Back in the USSA
October 24 2008
The land of the free and the stalwart of the capitalist system, America stands as the bulwark against socialism and as the advocate of the free economy. Well, that is the usual mantra but of course not everything is quite as it seems. more...
October 22 2008
Panacea’s role is to join up the loose connections between the many thousand small, directly regulated Independent Financial Adviser firms and product providers. Over the years, smaller IFAs have lost the face to face support resource that existed for the benefit of customers. The aim is also to correct the support and service imbalance with providers – currently in favour of Networks and larger national IFA firms. we have over 1000 members involved with Panacea and this is number is growing. more...
The End of the Beginning?
October 17 2008
Watching the fortresses of capitalism crumbling before our eyes has been an astonishing nay frightening, act to behold. I know that the media has run out of exaggerated adjectives to describe these events and the hyperbole is becoming tired, but we need to maintain some objective views as to how this is progressing. more...
No need to hunt for Red October or Blowing the Dam (and a grossly extended metaphor)
October 17 2008
So will it work? The truthful answer is that it has to. There is no “plan B”. The rescue package was certainly bold and the internationally co-ordinated interest rate cut a welcome surprise, but will it be enough to start clearing the log jam? more...
A Whiff of Cordite
September 25 2008
Forgive me this week for a bit of personal commentary – but the events and feelings of the past few days I think should be recorded for more proper recollection once the dust of this destruction has had time to settle. more...
Don’t jump back in just yet
September 19 2008
For investors, fund managers and equity traders, it has been clear for a while that the UK economy was grinding to a halt. For those not involved in the workings of the City, however, the real severity of the economic downturn has been limited until now to rising food and energy costs – unless they have had to remortgage recently. more...
Oriental Discounts
September 11 2008
“Its growth Jim, but not as we know it” would be the Trekkie’s description of what has been happening in Asia. Asian stock markets, excluding Japan, have for the most part been the darlings of the equity investment world over the past few years. The mantra from advisers has become almost a creed and as a result I have heard of some significant investments being made based on the view that this was a one way escalator going up and that one would be a fool to miss out. Such blind complacency never ceases to amaze me, especially when dealing with other people’s money! more...
Indebted UK
September 8 2008
If there is one area where we have managed to beat our American cousins in a league table it would appear to be with our accumulation of debt – unsecured personal debt. Nearly two thirds of our economy is based on consumer spending and this has expanded as we were all encouraged by dim-witted politicians and greedy bankers to pile up debts and to keep the national spending spree going – after all “It’s good for the country!” more...
Survival of the Leanest
August 29 2008
Last week may not have been the final capitulation, but it certainly sent a shudder through many, normally quite stoic, investors. Although warnings of difficult times ahead have been well signposted and warned of, it took the dreadful sales figures from some of the retailers and builders to ram home the effect of what has been developing over the past few months. more...
Summer Storms and a Summer Sojourn
August 29 2008
Unfortunately the very mention of global trade talks normally results in a glazed expression appearing across people’s faces. The Doha round of talks has been going on for seven years now and despite the headlines, most seem to have been resigned to their resulting in an impasse and with all the probability of final failure. more...
Going for Gold
August 29 2008
Four years, some twenty billion pounds, several ‘Free Tibet’ protestors, and a visually modified opening ceremony later, the games finally got underway at the Beijing Olympics 2008. Its stadium and facilities for the athletes had already received rave reviews as sports men and women the world over waited patiently to have their turn in the spotlight. So naturally it would follow that economists wanted a piece of the action too. No, not content enough in forecasting anaemic growth rates and crippling inflation, it seems some have been busy predicting which of the participating countries would come away with the highest medal count. more...
Emerging and Submerging
August 29 2008
From 1996 to 2000, with the honourable exception of 1999, the asset class of Emerging Market Equities was one of the worst performers, competing only with Gold, Commodities and Japanese equities for the title of ‘Dog of the Year’. Yet less than a decade later that same asset class has been continually fêted as the sure fire success for all investors. more...
The Fine Discipline of Chess
August 29 2008
Well that serves me right! Take a couple of weeks holiday and look what happens – oil pulls back 8.2%, the $ rises and the £ falls back 4.4% against it, and then to cap it all the Bear starts beating up the Georgians. In just a fortnight the world seems to have taken on a different hue. more...
Trader or speculator?
August 18 2008
I was trying to concentrate on giving a presentation on global markets last week whilst staring out over the stunning St Aubyn’s Bay in Jersey, and I found myself having to answer a similar question several times – on the lines of “are speculators ruining our markets?” Well in fevered markets it is easy to take a swipe at investors and traders to accuse them of profiting from speculation. more...
Ding Dong – not so merrily
June 26 2008
It was with some concern that I sat and listened late last year to an investment adviser extolling the great benefits of some of the more exotic emerging markets. As a broader sector it has of course been one of the top two stars over the past four years – a total turnaround from a decade earlier when they were the dogs of the asset class list – but as the phrase goes “every dog has its day”, and so did this one, Vietnam. more...
Feeling Queasy
June 20 2008
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Joining the dots of history
June 13 2008
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The Gift of Giving
June 6 2008
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As Safe as Houses?
June 2 2008
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Currency Conundrums
May 27 2008
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He huffed and he puffed and he.....sent a repossession order!
May 9 2008
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Maybe not just a passing problem? Inflation
May 2 2008
Damn statistics and damn politicians don’t blend well together. After highlighting some of the obfuscation around the unemployment numbers recently, it makes sense to move onto another vexed question – what exactly is the rate of our inflation? more...
Too Good To Be True?
April 25 2008
“Jobs figures bring welcome relief” was the leading headline – but in my view not so much relief as astonishment. Last week’s unemployment figures for the UK were heralded as the lowest for thirty years at 5.1% (down 0.1%) with even the numbers claiming jobseekers’ allowance declining. Our “working” population has risen by 465,000 in the past year to a total of 29.51 million and apparently this is the biggest increase for a decade. Just to add to the unremitting joy, vacancies were also at their highest since the current records began in 2001 and even redundancies were at their lowest, 106,000, since 1990. Surely a wondrous day for the British economy? more...
Please Sir, Can I have some more?
April 18 2008
What do Chinese pork, Indian rice, Australian wheat and U.S. corn have in common? Unfortunately right now, a great deal! Their prices have relentlessly marched upwards in the past year and they have the dubious honour of contributing to the current plight of food price inflation that is gripping the world. more...
Is this the world’s biggest hedge fund?
April 14 2008
What do you call a hedge fund with a government? Probably Iceland. For a country with the population approximately the same as that of Scunthorpe, this little nation has made a remarkable amount of noise over recent years. Better known for its turbulent geology and hot springs, it has more recently become known as a purveyor of equally hot money into various areas and especially the UK economy. As an example, the investment business Baugur has included an eclectic range of relatively small holdings in a variety of assets and reads more like a list of the typical British high street or shopping mall. more...
Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics
March 27 2008
If Mark Twain were alive today uttering these now famous words, I wonder just how amused he would be with how we have become subservient to a plethora of numbers. From exit polls directing the strategy of a presidential campaign, to TV shows entitled ‘8 out of 10 cats’ and politicians citing figures to convince us the economy is in fact quite healthy in their capable hands, statistics are now inescapable. more...
Going to “L” in a hand cart
March 20 2008
“Well what shape is it?” has been one of the most recent questions I have been faced with. “Is it going to be a V or U shaped recovery, or maybe a long bath shape?” Of course one would love to come out with a firm and clear idea of how the market will come bouncing back, but of course one can’t because not only would it be an irresponsible guess but also because nobody actually knows. more...
Somewhere over Sumatra
March 14 2008
Singapore I regard as my second home – tidier, warmer and generally better organised than West London. Although there are sometimes criticisms about the staid and reliable nature of Singapore’s operations, frankly I would regard that as great compliment. In Singapore things work – and work well. For a still young nation, they have a lot to teach many more patronising older nations. After all if you turn on a switch the lights come on – there are many areas of the region and the world where that does not happen all the time – including on occasion in my house in London. more...
Sunshine and Roses
March 7 2008
Here at the headquarters of Seven Investment Management, we in the investment management team are renowned for our rather pessimistic economic views and are affectionately called the ‘doom and gloom corner’. Mostly we wear this badge of honour with some pride and take comfort from the fact our cups are always half empty (incidentally, what’s the difference? Half empty, half full, at least we can all agree that the cup isn’t full yet!) However after spending the last two days trapped in a building (where I just happened to be attending the Euromoney Bond Congress) with fellow bond investors, chief investment officers and chief economists of some large investment managers, speakers representing the OECD, the Treasury of the United States, Central Bankers (the list is endless but distinguished), I came to this conclusion. We in the investment team are now faced with an identity crisis! Compared to the doom mongering I have listened to, we are positively full of sunshine and roses! more...
The Refined Art of Rock Knocking
March 5 2008
Oh what a chorus of half baked ill informed wingers. Since the decision to “nationalise” the Rock last Sunday, we seem to have suffered the rants and ravings of anybody with a view about the apparent impending demise of this institution. more...
