News:Going for Gold
And just what are these five crucial factors? Mr Johnson puts it down to GDP per capita, total population, political structure (this is one instance where not a having a vote really wins out), climate, and home-nation bias. One can imagine that population weighs heavily on medal totals – after all the higher the population the deeper pool of talented athletes and hence a greater chance of producing winners. For instance, the heavily populated China is projected to take an incredible haul of 89 medals, up from the 63 they took at Athens.
But population alone is not enough to explain the ability to win medals. Or else India should be walking away with a lion’s share now. Instead countries like the United States, Russia and Germany with a high per capita income are near the top of the medal winning table. In other words these countries have the added advantage of being rich too. The US is expected to take 103 medals in Beijing, with 33 of them being gold and the incredible Mr. Phelps is obviously seeing to that. This half man, half fish, has so many gold medals already that if he was a country he would be ranked sixth on the list!
The next factor favours communist and authoritarian countries in the medal stakes. The fact that India prides itself on being the biggest democracy in the world is seriously working against its fortunes in Beijing right now. That and the country’s obsession with cricket! Will its first ever individual gold medallist - Abhinav Bindra – boost the sport of shooting as much as he has his marriage prospects? His dear mother has already claimed that she has “lots of work ahead as he is the country's most eligible bachelor”.
The last two factors of climate, meaning the number of frost free days, and the added benefit of hosting the Olympics apparently add to the medal tally. Something to do with the government mobilising resources into the sport and the psychological impact of the home crowds cheering on should mean that our athletes should expect to do well at the London Olympics in 2012. But of course we all know different, don’t we? How else does one explain the ‘Henmania’ phenomenon failing to produce a Wimbledon tennis champion?
Another study by PricewaterhouseCoopers (who have also been forecasting Olympic success since 2000) factors in previous performance. This bodes well for US, China, Russia and Japan who all exceeded expectations in the Athens Games. At this point, I would just like to say to you kids – Don’t try this at home! Past performance is not an indication of future performance when it comes to your stock portfolio.
Daniel Johnson does have an astonishing 95% rate of accuracy and so his study perhaps should not be poo-pooed. In that vein, here are some things we should do to ensure this country has a good chance of winning further Olympic medals. Have more kids, make more money, turn communist, and drive more cars (more cars, more global warming, more frost free days – you get the picture!). Your country needs you.
And finally… as the saying goes ‘War is how Americans learn geography’. Perhaps, then, Birmingham City Council should go to war with Alabama. The council’s shocking grasp of geography was evident in the 720,000 leaflets it produced at a cost of £15,000 and sent to its residents thanking them for doing their bit for recycling. The photograph of the city it used on the leaflet showed not the famous landmarks of the Rotunda and Bullring shopping centre in Birmingham, West Midlands, but the American skyline of downtown Birmingham, Alabama instead. Oops!
Have a good weekend,
Research Analyst
Seven Investment Management Limited
Article last updated: Aug 29, 2008
